Super Bowl Odds

The NFL season is almost here. With this comes fantasy projections, mock drafts, and many other guesses that football fans will throw out there in anticipation of a new season. This is wonderful, like a breath of fresh air. Per VegasInsider, the Super Bowl odds are as follows:

  • 6/1: KC, NE
  • 10/1: LAR, NO
  • 14/1: Chi, Ind, Phi
  • 16/1: GB, LAC
  • 20/1: Cle, Pit, Dal, Min
  • 30/1: Sea
  • 40/1: Atl, Hou, Bal, SF, Car
  • 50/1: Jax
  • 60/1: Oak
  • 80/1: Den
  • 100/1: Ari, Buf, Cin, Det, NYG, NYJ, TB
  • 200/1: Ten, Was
  • 500/1: Mia

There are not a lot of surprises here, if we’re being honest. Although there are no sure bets when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, betting on Tom Brady and the Patriots seems to be a solid bet. Once again, they are the favorite, along with the Kansas City Chiefs. Depending on how you like to bet, you have some options though. Myself, I like to try and find the value bet; the team with longer odds that I feel has a legitimate chance to win it all. Here’s how I see some of these teams……..

Money Bets: For me, the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints are your best bets. The Saints are loaded again and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Both of these teams have top tier QBs and a lot of weapons.

Money Bets Jr: The Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts, and yes, the Los Angeles Chargers fall into this category. The Rams tasted it last year, now they want more. If Andrew Luck stays healthy, the Colts can make a run too. The Chargers will need Gordon to sign and their WRs to stay healthy.

Sucker Bets: These are the teams that people, en masse, will be throwing money at. Realistically, their odds should be higher, but Vegas knows where the money will land. Why go high when the money will come anyway? The Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, and Minnesota Vikings fall here. Yes, I get it, KC has an explosive offense. Show me some D, guys. I can’t see a team winning the Super Bowl without a defense. The Browns are a fad. Much improved, but not quite there. Pittsburgh and Dallas have huge fan bases, hence the money coming in on them. The Steelers have too many questions though. The only hope the Cowboys have is if they can somehow sign Dak, Zeke, and Amari, while also keeping them all happy. The Vikings will be very good, but Kirk Cousins needs to show us he can consistently beat winning teams.

Value Bets: These teams have longer odds, but still have the pieces to make magic happen. Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Baltimore Ravens are my value teams. I’m not saying any of them will win the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t be shocked either. Seattle has Russell Wilson. Need I say more? Atlanta can put up points and their defense is getting better. Baltimore will rely heavily on Lamar Jackson. If he comes through, it could happen for these guys. The Houston Texans are my value bet pick though. Adding Duke Johnson gives them a solid 2-back running game and a healthy Watson will spread the field and keep defenses honest. Their defense should be one of the best in the league.

A few very good teams, I feel, are projected too high. Chicago, Philly, and Green Bay are all 16/1 or better. Again, Vegas knows where the money will land, so that may explain it. I don’t see either of these teams making it to the Super Bowl. The good thing about all of this is that we get 17 weeks to watch it all play out. Who do you like? Where is your money going?

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